Donald Trump threatened Iran : Why

On Sunday, Trump didn’t hold anything back as he spoke about Iran and his next steps with the Islamic Republic. In an interview with NBC News, he threatened Iran with bombings and secondary tariffs if the country did not come to an agreement with his administration about its nuclear programmed. “If they don’t make a deal,” Trump told NBC News’, it will be cause of bombing the likes of which they have never seen before”. The US president further added: “There’s a chance that if they don’t make a deal, that I will do secondary tariffs on them like I did four years ago that brought them to a position that they very much wanted to be”.

What is the Agreement

An agreement with Tehran is for totally shutdown of Iran’s nuclear weapon programme. His statement come as the Trump administration is working on it. To this effect, Trump sent a letter to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, on March 12 reportedly urging the Iranian government to begin negotiations.  On the same concern, told Fox News, I’ve written them a letter saying, ‘I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing’. But, on Sunday (March 30), Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian said that the Islamic Republic rejected direct negotiations with the United States over the nuclear deal. “We don’t avoid talks,” Pezeshkian said in a Cabinet meeting. Further saying that, “We responded to the US president’s letter via Oman and rejected the option of direct talks, but we are open to indirect negotiations,” Pezeshkian said. He stressed that while Iran is not against negotiations in principle, Washington must first rectify its past “misconduct” and rebuild trust.

Iran Ups the Ante

According to a report in Tehran Times, Iran has placed its missiles in ready-to-launch mode within underground facilities across the country, designed to withstand airstrikes. Moreover, in a recently released video, the Islamic Republic also showed off its underground missile facility. Termed ‘Missile City‘ by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the clip displayed the country’s advanced weaponry and its troops stepping on an Israeli flag painted on the ground.

Also, Press TV, the English-language arm of Iranian state television, published a report last week that listed US bases in West Asia as possible targets of attack. The list included Camp Thunder Cove on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, where the US is basing stealth B-2 bombers likely being used in Yemen.

Iranian missiles on display in Tehran. File image/Reuters

The Iran Nuclear Deal at the Centre of All

Trump first pulled out of in his first term negotiated in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, saw Iran agreeing to dismantle much of its nuclear programme and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars worth of sanctions relief. Many believed that this deal would help prevent a revival of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme and thereby reduce the prospects for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, Trump lifted himself from the deal in 2018 and re-imposed sweeping sanctions. Since then the Islamic Republic has far surpassed the agreed limits in its escalating programmed of uranium enrichment.

Trump Arrival

Since his return to the White House, this year, he has restarted his “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran with his officials repeatedly insisting that Iran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon. Trump, in his letter to Iran, also cited a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear deal, reported Axios. However, isn’t clear whether the two-month clock begins from the time the letter was delivered or from when negotiations start. But Iran is also firm in its stance that it can’t hold direct negotiations, as Washington maintains its heavy sanctions on Tehran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also said earlier, “We will not enter any direct negotiations with the US so long as they continue their maximum pressure policy and their threats”.

Concerns Loom Large

As the two countries refuse to back down, many worry that it could result in military strikes, endangering the security situation in West Asia and nearby regions. While Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon yet, it does possess the knowledge and infrastructure to produce a nuclear weapon in fairly short order, should its leaders decide to do so. Moreover, Iran is known for its Missile Programme as evidenced by its airstrikes on Israel last year. Iran has varied capabilities, including deep and diverse arsenals of cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. US intelligence analysts say that Iran has the largest ballistic missile inventory in West Asia. In fact, Iran’s longest-range missiles have the capability of striking targets over 2,000 kilometres away, covering all of West Asia and big parts of Europe. Combine all of this, and it’s a big concern to Washington.

With inputs from agencies

A research fellow at National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, told Foreign Policy that a strike on Iran would carry a heavy price tag for the US. US airstrikes on Iran would likely escalate into a wider conflict, given the higher probability of retaliatory strikes. She further noted that it would likely push Iran’s leadership to accelerate its nuclear ambitions covertly increasing the risk of an undetectable breakout. Iranian leaders may conclude that becoming a nuclear-armed state is the only viable long-term safeguard against future attacks. Moreover, it could lead to Iran turning to its network of Proxy Militias, the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. It is left to be seen what comes next, but we hope for cooler minds to prevail. After all, who needs to see another war in 2025!

 

 

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